Is a Big Short Social Media Era Looming?
Ancient civilizations never looked at time as linear. This is how we came to Hesiod's "Five Ages of Man": Golden Age, Silver Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age.
Repeat.
When reading the book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe you realize quickly their whole theory is based on a cyclical model of time. The reason you hang a wreath on your door is because it is a pagan ritual representing the "circle" of a year coming to an end.
Yet too many of us look at time like a stock price report for a company. Left to right. Always up and to the right. Always linear. Always evolving and progressing.
This is our gravest mistake as humans.
When we diagnose digital "eras" many draft it as linear. Even labeling it as 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, etc.
It is supposed to get smarter and better because the technology is getting smarter and better.
We make the "time is linear" evolutionary mistake.
1990-1998 : Early web forums and BBS of Web 1.0
1998-2004 : Instant Messenger and Corporate Chat Forums powered by AOL and Yahoo
2004-2008 : Friendster, MySpace, LinkedIn, Tumblr, Facebook Web 2.0
2008-2015 : The Reign of Facebook, Twitter and livestream video
2015-2029 : The corporatization of social media as four platforms reign: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube
2019-2025 : TikTok changes the newsfeed. And the game
2025 : AI slop and social media collapse
2026 - ???
We'd be smart to see this is a circle. So what will happen?
A rebirth. A reset.
If you live long enough, you'll see a lot of things you already saw repeating. And that's what will happen here.
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
Many times we assume because platforms exist that they are healthy. But social media as we've known it has been on life support as a business model for some time now. Even back in 2018 this piece was written for Branding Strategy Insider noting this initial sentiment at the time. Now more are leaving social media in droves or lessening its usage. A soft economy means advertising is down. That means the business model can't monetize. That means that ultimately this model isn't sustainable. What at one time were seen as disruptors are now seen as old and disrupted. The positive growth engagement metrics may say otherwise. But the question never asked is are all those accounts backed by real people? Or are they bot farms, used to AstroTurf perception? And what is driving people away? Possibly some or all of the following:
- Politics. As the platforms become filled with politics, they become filled with infighting. This leads people to abandon as they tire of constant bickering, battling and bullshit. If you talk to your neighbors in real life, you realize we all are humankind (to use a term from the great Rutger Bregman book of the same name).
- Dopamine exhaustion. If you smoke a carton of cigarettes a day you will get sick. Probably get lung cancer. And die. Same with all this usage of social media which leaves many people disillusioned and frazzled. Many want to feel connected and healthy again. Detox seems to be the path forward.
- Seeking new ways to not feel lonely. The need for in person connection isn't just something used by companies to get people back into the office in person. Studies have shown being around other people is healthy for you. If you're lonely, you turn inward to screens and become even more lonely. Some people feel beyond repair with brain rot. Others have awakened that they need to exercise their mind just like exercising your body.
- The adoption of smaller niche communities. A group text message with people you know is more powerful than "Chad" or "Katie" commenting a bunch of BS on some dumb brand post. People are tired of the bigness of it all.
When asked about social media usage, Gen Alpha are showing signs of behaving like laggards. They are the first generation to grow up all digital but that doesn't mean they're just going to accept these things blindly. While their usage of YouTube may be high, they are not likely to use other apps. And many of their parents know the harms of these systems and are not allowing their kids to download social media apps at all.
Finally, let's address the TikTok situation. The new ownership sounds closest to a state run media system in the United States. And many have noted when they are asked to download the new app, they will just move on, like many have done in the past abandoning platforms like Geocities, MySpace, Tumblr and X before them.
Circle of life.
But social media is so entrenched in our behaviors, how can it go away just like that? It's just "too big to fail."
Yeah, we may need to, um, "big short" that sentiment.
All bubbles deflate slowly. Is the air finally leaking out of the social media balloon?